What if No Fall Ball?

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  • This topic has 13 replies, 7 voices, and was last updated by Kevin KinderKevin Kinder.
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  • #120320

    If the B1G or P12 fall in line with the MAC and cancel fall FB, could there be a winter/spring schedule?

    You could start the season Jan 10 (second Sat in Jan).  End April 10 (second Sat in April).  That gives you 14 weeks.  12 games, 1 bye, 1 conf champ game.  Bowls the next 5 weeks, Champ game by mid May.  May 15 gives you 5 Sat’s to get all the bowl games in.  And we’re done…..

    #120321

    I don’t think, at this point, it’s a question of “What if” but rather “Now What?” The odds are pretty long for a Spring season as well. We may see one but it’ll have to be condensed and I seriously doubt there would be a bowl schedule.  There’s just not enough time for what needs to happen during the summer months.  Financially devastating for sure.  However University athletic depts made this mess; so now they have to deal with their reckless spending over the last 50 years.

    #120333

    All good questions Butler. I haven’t put a great deal of thought yet into a spring sched, as there has been so much to cover here.

    Off the top of my head, I don’t think you could go back to full schedules in the spring, as so many noncon games have already been cancelled and new games signed. I suppose you could just try for a do-over, and everyone go back to the scheds they had on June 1, but that assumes that this pandemic is over by Jan-Feb. (I seriously doubt if that will be the case.) And it also assumes all the schools/conferences agree to do that.

    Your sched timeframe is a good one as far as football goes, but what about all the other fall sports moved to spring on top of spring sports? Schools would be playing FB, MBB, WBB Baseball, WSoccer, MSoccer, VB and Wrestling all at the same time. Enough staff to go around? Video production? Doubt that. Those are just a few of the questions around moving to spring. I’m sure there will be more, and lots more debate.

    But, if there’s not a vaccine by then, what will be different in Jan-Feb than now?

    #120345

    If the fall sports are cancelled, it will certainly further seperate the “haves” and the “have nots.” I can’t see the AAC, MWC, CUSA, etc. schools surviving with the Athletic Department intact. Heck, maybe even some of the bottom tier P5 schools might not survive. Those that do might be absorbed into the P5.

    #120352

    I do believe we will see at a vaccine by the first of the year.  There are at least three promising candidates in phase III testing with more undoubtably on the way.  The question will be how quickly vaccine production is ramped up.  I do feel confident that by the beginning of summer most people who are willing to be vaccinated will be vaccinated.

    My optimism for a fall sports season is closer to pessimistic than optimistic at this point.

    #120354

    Butlereer – great questions. My feeling in talking to people in athletic departments is that if there is spring football, it will not be a 12-game schedule. Probably in the neighborhood of eight or nine games, because one of the big concerns is whether a player’s body can handle play two complete seasons within about a 10-month time period. Thus the number of games in the spring would be limited and maybe even next fall. Also I don’t think they would start playing games in January. Probably would take the normal Christmas break and then would use January for preseason practices with games starting in early January, playing the regular season from February through April with bowl games (if there are such things next spring) being played in May. That’s how those in the industry think it would play out, but as we’ve seen, there are no definite answers for tomorrow, say anything of six months from now.

    #120368

    Shep,

    Good point, but the manufacture and distribution is the key.  Say two of the three meet the 50% effectiveness threshold. I know that at least one is being produced now so that it can go out ASAP if it passes the rest of the trials, but I am not confident that it can be rolled out on the massive scale necessary without government help.

    And before everyone rolls their eyes, think logistics. No way can these all be distributed to every doctor and little clinic so people can go on their own. It has to be a drive through or big arena type procedure. Can that be set up?

    When I was in the public sector, I was on a committee that trained to do just that. We’d set up at some place where people could be funneled through quickly, medicine distributed or shots given.  Govt at all levels has to be involved and on board to make that work efficiently. Maybe we can pull it off, but it will still take time.

    #120373

    Greg, If we do see Spring ball, you can bet your house that there will be some kind of a bowl schedule.  There’s way too much money for the Schools, Bowls, Advertisers to let another couple weeks go without bowl games.  Just think about the host cities.  They would die to bring a few thousand people into their city after very little travel because of COVID the prior months.

    #120374

    Kevin, if the vaccine is ready and supply is already being produced, you can bet that a supply chain will work itself out.  You’ll see every Walmart, Walgreen, CVS, every retail that has a prescription counter setting up lines for shots.  This will be on top of every doctors office, hospital and clinic.

    I wouldn’t worry too much about that.  It will be a rush to get the shots, but the volume of people will settle down fairly quickly.

    The biggest hurdle will be enough vaccines in the right place at the right time.  I can see social media going ballistic when the local CVS runs out one day and people have to come back the next …… even though Walgreens and the doc’s office have a supply.

    #120429

    Butler,

    Agreed there will be spot issues, but wasn’t thinking about that.

    However, I disagree with your supply chain take. I hope I am wrong, but recent experience with the supply chain for toilet paper, milk and meat, among others, shows that it can take several weeks, if not longer, to work itself out.

    Going back to my experience, we never had to implement it, but we practiced it. And that was in WV, where we would have to serve maybe 1 million people (There will be a significant percentage of novaxxers and anti-govenrnment people that won’t show.)

    Now imagine trying to scale that to major metro areas, and at all the locations you mention. The procedures we were set up to do works around the huge logistics problems of getting to every drug store and doctors office, but its still a big job to coordinate all that with shipping companies that are already overwhelmed. If they have to ship to tens of thousands of locations instead of, say, a couple of thousand, then maybe they are in better shape. But it’s still a massive effort. Hopefully someone is working on that now.

    Could it be worked out? Yes, eventually. I’m not optimistic that it can happen by the first of the year, though.

    #120436

    KK: (Question of the day)
    But, if there’s not a vaccine by then, what will be different in Jan-Feb than now?

    This is where the rubber meets the road!
    If B12 postpones, what says the reasons for it won’t be there in the spring? The odds of counting on a vaccine are not worth the postponement!

    #120445

    First of all there will be an effective vaccine by the first of the year.

    Distribution will be a challenge but the vaccine production is being worked on and should be able to provide sufficient vaccine doses by then or shortly thereafter.

    The issue will be vaccinating all who wish to be vaccinated in a responsible timeframe.  That is why I mentioned Summer of 2020 in an earlier.

    I do not think this vaccine will be distributed via Walmart and CVS type stores.  Being that we are in a pandemic I can see a massive, but public administration of the vaccine once the supplies reach the masses, probably in a second wave of vaccinations after the doctors, nurses, etc get the initial phase.

    #120451

    Kevin, I can see why you think that the supply chain won’t handle it.  But your comparison to toilet paper, milk, meat isn’t a good comparison.  The rush to purchase all stock of items that made bare shelves was due to lack of production, not supply chain.  It took time to get production up to speed again for those items.  It may have been because of lack of materials, raw ingredients or even manpower at the manufacturing site.  Getting those goods out of the manufacturing plant was the problem because of the demand created by fear, not because the supply chain couldn’t handle it.  They just couldn’t manufacture it fast enough.

    On the other hand, the vaccine is being stockpiled right now.  Once we get the go from the guru’s above, things will go immediately into the supply chain.  The Gov’t is working on logistics right now on how to handle the vaccination of millions of people.  CVS, Walgreens, Walmart or just a military style distribution.  Drive thru tents and stick your arm out the car window.  Whatever works fastest and best.   ….

    Then the never vaxxers and anti everything crowd will have to be dealt with …… or maybe not.  We may have to just order more body bags.  I’d be in favor of that.

    #120537

    KK: (Question of the day)
    But, if there’s not a vaccine by then, what will be different in Jan-Feb than now?

    This is where the rubber meets the road!
    If B12 postpones, what says the reasons for it won’t be there in the spring? The odds of counting on a vaccine are not worth the postponement!

    100% agree with what you are thinking, Tony. If there’s no vaccine, I don’t see a burnout of the virus happening by then, although I freely admit I’m not a doctor. More people indoors, more contact, I would think that it would follow the higher transmission rates that we see with flu. I might be wrong on that, and certainly welcome more input and info (as always!).

    And people’s habits in the US are not going to change. The percentage of those who aren’t going to comply with basic precautions is way higher than I thought it would be.

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