- This topic has 8 replies, 6 voices, and was last updated by WVFaninMI.
June 29, 2020 at 1:00 pm #118777
The West Virginia University Department of Intercollegiate Athletics announced Monday afternoon that one Mountaineer men’s basketball student-athlete
[See the full post at: WVU Men’s Basketball Student-Athlete Tests Positive for COVID-19]June 29, 2020 at 5:52 pm #118779
Again, if possible, any info you can provide on their status, football and/or basketball, would be appreciated. Not identification, but symptoms, fever (if any), duration, general overall feeling, etc. I think the number of confirmed cases in the US is being placed at around 2.5 million, and if you assume the US population is approximately 325 million, then that means for any random gathering of 400 people about 3 would have had COVID. That still means for most people they probably do not know many who have had the illness and may not know anyone who has had the illness. So first hand information about how people are faring is not easy to come by. Thanks.June 30, 2020 at 12:26 am #118784
Testing has it’s consequences. The more you test, the more you will find with COVID. Many of these + results are kids that are asymptomatic. And most likely they will have little problems recovering. Still …… this does throw a wrench into the system.
Any word on his contact with other players and are they having to quarantine?June 30, 2020 at 8:22 am #118792
The three football positives were asymptomatic at the time of the test.
In Adrian’s case, as noted in the article, he described his symptoms, and they are still ongoing.
I’m not sure what that mean’s overall, though. If you get COVID-19 from someone who is asymptomatic, that doesn’t mean you will be asymptomatic. Can you explain a bit more what you are looking for, other than fro a general interest standpoint?
I agree with your math, but strongly caution against using that or other simplications (like the fact that more testing yields more positive results) as supportive of any conclusions. For example, the key to me is the percentage of positive tests, not the total number of positives. If the previous postive rate was 3%, and is now rising to a higher percentage, that’s a much more reliable indicator that things are getting worse not better — along with hospitalization and death rates.
Also, I would be very careful about assuming that all the young people will have little problem recovering. And while they have it, how many people will they infect unknowingly? Take Adrian’s case – he has a father who is in the very high risk category. I don’t know the percentages, but I would guess that more than 50% of us have a relative or someone that we are in contact with regularly that are high risk.
WVU did put some additional football players in quarantine after the initial positive announcement. Hopefully that headed off any additional infections.June 30, 2020 at 9:14 pm #118822
Just a general interest in their condition. Have not yet read the Adrian article but will.
But the % rate can be misleading in my estimation. If you tested 5 people out of 400 and only 3 would test positive your chances of choosing one of those 3 would be pretty small. But if you test 100 out of the 4oo your chances of choosing one of those 3 increases but still may not be high. Increase the number of tests to 150, or 200, and that chance increases again. Your % in example one may be zero and may be low in the subsequent examples but may not be zero. Did the rate of infection increase? Or just the probability of finding a positive?
Still lots of uncertainty surrounding this virus and everyone needs to evaluate the degree of risk they find acceptable for their own situation. That does not mean if your risk tolerance is greater than others you do not need to show restraint around others. However, if your risk tolerance is low you need to isolate yourself as much as possible, not depend on others to reduce your risk.June 30, 2020 at 10:42 pm #118826
The number of individuals that have this virus is not determined by the number of tests you do. Positives are positive whether you test or not. Many may be asymptomatic, but they are infectious nonetheless. The percentage of positives is a snapshot of the percentage at the time the tests were taken. The greater number of tests you do will identify those who are positive and can by quarantined, thus lowering the viral outbreak. It also, as Kevin noted, allows you assess the extent the virus has spread throughout a community and also helps you assess if the percentages are rising or falling. The more we know about this virus the better we can defeat it and get back to normal more quickly.June 30, 2020 at 11:56 pm #118828
The number of individuals that have this virus is not determined by the number of tests you do.
But the % of positives you obtain in your sample is not necessarily an accurate representation of the actual number of positives within the total population, though you imply otherwise. If the % of positives obtained by testing last week is not an accurate indication of the total population, and the % of positives obtained by testing this week is also not an accurate indication of the total population, then it is not possible to draw meaningful conclusions by comparing two imprecise pieces of data. It may be the best data we have, does not mean it is good data or that the limitations of the data are being adequately described/reported.July 1, 2020 at 10:23 am #118839
Problem with the numbers is perception. Testing won’t change who has or doesn’t have the COVID. Testing won’t change the % of population with the COVID. Testing will only drive up the numbers that are reported as positive.
Unfortunately with the way the media spins everything the higher the positive numbers, not %, the worse the outcome and it becomes a political game. If you watched the daily pressers, there were multiple neophytes, (I was going to say brain dead assbuckets, but didn’t want to be called racist) calling out the administration because we had more cases than any other country. These jackwagons have no clue that it is a product of the number of people in the U.S. combined with the number of tests. This was particularly evident when a few days in a row a young female reporter of Asian descent (again not being racist but describing her so you could pinpoint the reporter) demanded that we are so much worse than other countries because of the numbers. Another brilliant assumption by the brain dead Fake News.July 1, 2020 at 10:51 am #118840
Mathematically, you cannot get accurate results using percentages of percentages. Said another way, if you tested 1 million people out of our 325 million population in one (1) day and the result of those tested is 3% positive (30,000 folks), then you CANNOT extrapolate that thus 3% of the total population is positive (9,750,000 folks).
The fact of the matter is, that the only finite number from the above example is that on that ONE day out of ONLY those 1 million people, 3% were positive. You cannot factually draw any other conclusion from that testing other than this.
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