Pac-12 On Expansion

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  • This topic has 30 replies, 10 voices, and was last updated by Butlereer.
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  • #153193

    Butler, adding G5 schools will definitely move the Big12 into that lower status.  No schools, even the pathetic press’s little darling byu, will not bring us any more money than what the Big12 will get without OUT.  Our percentage of our share will go down.

    I’m not using actual payouts, just easy figures to show.

    Example:  Big12 with 10 counting OU and UT  100 million whole/10 million each

    Big12 with 8 minus OU and UT                            48 million whole/ 6 million each

    Big12 with 10 add(2) G5(say byu and bsu)         50 million whole/ 5 million each

    And that’s being generous.

    So be patient. the Power 4 will eventually expand and we will be in a better position,  Adding a G5 school now could mean knocking a present P5 out later.

    #153194

    It’s rehashing old business, but all the Big East had to do was add Penn State and WV.  It would have been enough.

    #153217

    Gavitt didn’t care about FB and didn’t want another FB school.

    #153322

    This is based on nothing but my own thoughts which tend to lean toward the conspiracy theory side:

    Bowlsby came out strong against ESPN soon after the OK/TX news was leaked. Not long after, he sort of backtracked and wouldn’t repeat or discuss his comments.

    Now we are seeing announcements from the other P5s saying they won’t expand, while at the same time hearing rumors of BYU being added to Big 12.

    What if ESPN is now dealing behind the scenes with the Big 12 to steer teams to the conference with the assurance that they would maintain their seat at the table if they won’t stir the pot and play nice?

    Would anyone really be surprised if this is actually taking place hehind the scenese igiven the current atmosphere of CFB? Certainly distasteful, but absolutely not out of the realm of possibility.

    #153332

    ESPiN is playing CFB like the MAFIA in the 30’s.

    #153347

    Jeff, back door dealings can work both ways.  While unethical and distasteful it is unlikely what UT and OK did was in any way illegal.  ESPN could be on shakier ground but that is a hard case to prove, let alone win.

    But keeping UT and OK in the B12, at least until their cost of exiting is maximized, is not only good for the remaining B12 members but for the “alliance” members as well.  As that equates to less money for the SEC, directly or indirectly.

    Same with putting the expanded playoff proposal on hold.  Just a couple of years ago Clemson, Bama, Georgia, and OK were all in the 4 team playoff.  If the change had already taken place that would be 3 of the 4 from the SEC.  Even if all 3 would not get in from the same conference in a 4 team format does not mean all 3, possibly even more, would not all get in with an expanded playoff format.

    That expanded playoff format is likely to change now, likely to the detriment of the SEC and ESPN.  Talks could be going on now, at least in a preliminary sense, between the alliance and other media players, like Fox and CBS, perhaps some streaming companies as well.

    UT and OK would not have the same fiduciary responsibility toward the conference that Bowlsby and the conference administration would have toward UT and OK.  So keeping UT and OK (and the SEC) out of the loop could be what is going on.

    How could the B12 be kept in the loop without spilling the beans to UT and OK?  A consultant to the B12 would not have the same fiduciary responsibility to UT and OK as Bowlsby would.  Such a consultant could have conversations with media companies and the alliance and decide that nothing they heard was worth reporting back to the B12.  But such a consultant could have conversations with an individual school and that school could have conversations with some, but not all, of their fellow members.  Similar to what UT and OK were doing.

    But these are just thoughts and speculation is just speculation.

    #153403

    SEC’s Sankey indicating that other athletic directors would have made the same decision he made when approached by UTOU: “I think there’s a bit of an old playbook when you’re trying to manage through some things — you know, the anonymous AD said this or the anonymous AD said that,” Sankey said. “The words trust and communication and collaboration were there a lot, and I’ve yet to have any one of them say to me, ‘Wow, I wouldn’t have done the same thing you did if that opportunity materialized.’”

    #153406

    Tylerite, first of all if you think adding a G5 school will knock out a spot for the B12 to add a P5 school, that is misguided.  No P5 school is leaving to hitch their wagon to the B12 at a much lower payout.

    Then in your example if you think 8 teams bring in $48M and adding two more only bring in $1M each that is also hugely misleading.  What you didn’t add in was that most all of those teams will be in bowl games.  And almost every bowl game pays out over $1M to each team.

    Also more conference teams bring more viewers to the whole conference.  ie. Memphis fans will be watching other B12 games instead of watching AAC games if they were even available.  And most likely watching B12 games instead of ACC or SEC games.  Think of it this way.  How many B12 games did WVU fans watch when WVU was in the BE if they weren’t playing at that time.  Most likely they were watching BE teams rather than most other games.

    This isn’t saying that adding G5 teams won’t relegate us to G5 status.  But we know that staying at 8 will.  Can’t be a P5 conference with only 8 teams.

    #153412

    IMO, it’s nearly impossible to know what the outcome of TV contracts will be four years down the road. You are guessing, and it may be a good guess, or it may not be a good guess.

    If anything, just waiting to be admitted to the ACC is not a good option because during that time, the ACC may be facing the same problems the B-12 is now facing. Then where would WVU be?

    If the B-12 does nothing this year, and the two schools depart next year, the conference will be open for court judgement for failing to maintain the ten school conference, as specified in the contract.

    Even if the conference adds two schools, it’s possible ESPN may try to have their payout reduced, but they’d have one less leg to stand on if the conference still had at least ten schools.

    #153414

    I still believe that what will eventually happen to WVU is something that no one would have anticipated.  Many theories I’ve been reading seem too rational, and rational is not a word that comes to mind when I think of college sports.

    As I look at it, I don’t think the ACC or the BIG will expand.  I can’t think of a strong case for either of those conferences adding new members unless of course it’s ND.  If I were the Jilted 8 I’d probably be looking to add BYU (though Kevin made some valid points against this; still we’re talking money) and UCF, Houston, and Cincy.

    But I wonder, if the Big 12 adds members, does that let OU and Texas off the hook so that they don’t have to pay any penalties?  I don’t know the answer to that.  I want to hold the Big 12 together as long as possible so that Texas and OU can’t leave until 2025.  And if they want to leave earlier, which they will, make them pay the remaining 8 schools one hell of a lot of money.  What they did shouldn’t go unpunished.  They’re not only harming the athletics of their “partners,” they’re inflicting considerable financial damage on the communities where these schools are located.  Just think of the economic pain of a reduced football program for the Morgantown/Northern WV area.  Let Texas and OU find themselves in a very uncomfortable position for the next few years.

    #153424

    Does anybody know what the B12 contract says for adding a school? How many yes votes? 8? 9? 10? If it is 8 then add them now and still hold OUT to their 4 year commitment.
    In any case B12 HAS TO have 2 in line the day OUT leaves.

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